回归最大值及其在水文生态学研究中的应用

V. Artemenko, Volodymyr Petrovych
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摘要

水化学的现实问题之一是太阳活动对水环境条件化学物质的影响。为了估计某些水化学因子与太阳活动(Wolf’s Numbers W)之间的关系,对1991 ~ 2010年乌克兰大平坦河水体中〖nh_4 ^+、〖NO〗_2^-、〖NO〗_3^-的浓度进行了研究。离子浓度以毫克/升表示。他们还分析了沃尔夫在这一时期(1991年至2010年)的数据。由于这些对最佳的依赖关系以极值的速率显示出来,因此对于沃尔夫数的每个值,只选择离子浓度的最大值。因此,不是对所有原始数据执行回归,而是仅对最大值集中执行回归。对于这个回归执行两个步骤:步骤1:为Wolf数的每个唯一值只选择一个(最大)离子浓度值。步骤2:以指定的方式准备数据用于回归。实验表明,在这种情况下使用线性回归是不可能的(得到水平线)。实验也证明了使用多项式分位数回归的充分性(因此使用了这种回归)。采用中位数回归(Q=0,5的分位数回归)。中位数回归表明,随着沃尔夫数的增加,〖nh_4 ^+、〖NO〗_2^-、〖NO〗_3^-的浓度明显降低。文中提出了“极值回归”对解决水文生态学实际问题的重要意义。沃尔夫数行为的总体趋势可以预测未来十年的时间。这意味着,作为〖nh_4 ^+、〖no_2 ^-、〖no_3 ^-的总趋势,也可以预测十年以后的时间(自然水的纯度因素)。太阳活动强度高(沃尔夫数值高)时,自然水体较纯净(〖nh_4 ^+、〖NO〗_2^-、〖NO〗_3^-浓度最低)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
REGRESSION MAXIMUM AND ITS USE TO HYDROECOLOGICAL RESEARCH
One of the actual problems of hydrochemistry there is influence to solar activity on condition chemical substance in water environment. The goal of the work it is possible estimation relationship some hydrochemical factors and solar activity (Wolf's Numbers W). To this effect the research was given for concentration 〖NH〗_4^+, 〖NO〗_2^- , 〖NO〗_3^- in water large flat river of Ukraine (1991 … 2010 years). The ion concentrations denominated in mg on litre. Were they also analysed given over Wolf's numbers for this period (1991 … 2010 years). Since these dependencies for the best reveals itself at a rate of extreme values that for each value of the Wolf's number selected only maximum to concentrations of the ion. Accordingly building to regressions executed not on all raw data’s but for maximum values concentration only. For this regression execute in two steps: STEP 1: Selected only one (maximum) value concentration of the ion for each unique value of Wolf's number. STEP 2: To prepared by specified way data is used for regression. Experiment has shown that linear regression in this instance to use it is impossible (got the horizontal line). Experiment has also shown adequacy of the use polynomial quantile regression (so it was used this type of regression). It was used median egression (quantile regression for Q=0,5). Median regression demonstrates the observable reduction a concentration of 〖NH〗_4^+, 〖NO〗_2^-,〖 NO〗_3^- when increasing of values Wolf's Numbers. Offered in article “regression for maximus” important for decision of the practical problems of hydroecology. The general trend in behavioyr of Wolf's Numbers can be forecasting on times of the ten years onward. This means as the general trend in behavioyr of 〖NH〗_4^+, 〖NO〗_2^- , 〖NO〗_3^- also can be forecasting on times of ten of years onward (the factor of the purity of natural water). The natural water more pure (the minimum concentration of 〖NH〗_4^+, 〖NO〗_2^- , 〖NO〗_3^-) under high solar activity (high values of Wolf's Numbers).
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