新冠肺炎疫情后国际经济和电力合作的展望与挑战

A. Dynkin, Elena A. Telegina, G. Khalova
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文探讨了2018-2020年阻碍国际能源和经济合作发展的趋势。COVID - 19大流行及其引发的全球经济和能源危机尤其加剧了这些趋势。石油需求的下降影响了世界大宗商品价格的下跌。由于需求下降,石油出口国之间的竞争加剧。因此,能源领域的国际能源合作机制面临严重压力。世界上最大的经济中心:中国、美国、欧盟和欧亚空间之间的动态关系已成为全球经济失衡和对抗趋势加剧的另一个方面。2018-2019年中美贸易矛盾加剧,对全球经济增长和主要制造业指数动态产生负面影响。反过来,2020年的事件清楚地证实,中美之间的矛盾具有深层次的结构性。这些矛盾加剧了全球经济体系的两极分化,不能仅靠投资和贸易领域的让步和协定来克服。在这种背景下,欧盟为应对疫情和英国脱欧带来的经济后果而采取的措施的真正有效性值得怀疑,只有在足够长的时间后才能可靠地评估。作者认为,与欧盟的情况相反,欧亚经济联盟有进一步加强经济、政治和能源合作的趋势。面对新冠肺炎疫情、全球经济危机和外部挑战,欧亚经济联盟不仅勇敢面对,而且继续积极致力于团结成员国,提高各国的能源和经济安全。在考虑到欧亚空间发展的积极趋势的情况下,作者提出了在大流行后时期进一步发展国际经济和能源合作的设想。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prospects and Challenges to International Economic and Power Production Cooperation after the Covid-19 Pandemic
The article examines the trends that hinder the development of international energy and economic cooperation in 2018–2020. These trends have been particularly exacerbated by the COVID‑19 pandemic and the resulting global economic and energy crisis. Falling demand for oil has affected the decline in world commodity prices. Competition between oil exporters has intensified amid falling demand. As a result, international energy cooperation mechanisms in the energy sector have come under serious pressure. The dynamics of relations between the world’s largest economic centers: China, the United States, the European Union, and the Eurasian space have become another aspect of the aggravation of imbalances and confrontational trends in the global economy. The strengthening of trade contradictions between the United States and China in 2018–2019 negatively affected global economic growth and the dynamics of major manufacturing indices. In turn, the events of 2020 clearly confirmed that the contradictions between China and the United States are of a deep structural nature. These contradictions exacerbate the polarization of the global economic system and cannot be overcome by concessions and agreements exclusively in the field of investment and trade. Against this background, the real effectiveness of measures taken in the EU to deal with the economic consequences of both the pandemic and Brexit is questionable, and can only be reliably assessed after a sufficiently long time. The authors show that in contrast to the situation in the EU, the EAEU has tendencies to further strengthen economic, political and energy cooperation. Despite the COVID‑19 pandemic, the global economic crisis and external challenges, the Eurasian Economic Union not only stands up to them, but also continues to actively work to unite the Union’s countries, as well as improve their energy and economic security. The authors offer their vision of further development of international economic and energy cooperation in the post-pandemic period, taking into account the positive trends in the development of the Eurasian space.
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