Comprehensive evaluation and dynamic evolution analysis of urban vulnerability of old industrial bases in Heilongjiang Province, China

Urban vulnerability has always been the main component of urban planning research, and it is an important basis for judging whether urban development is healthy and sustainable. As the largest old industrial bases in the country, northeast China has embarked on a development path dominated by heavy industry under the planned economy system. Its industrial structure is not sustainable, and it requires long-term reliance on natural resources. The ecological environment has been destroyed. Studying the urban vulnerability of old industrial bases in northeast China is of great significance for their revitalization as well as the promotion of high-quality urban development in China. Using 12 prefecture-level cities in the Heilongjiang Province in northeast China as the research subjects, an evaluation index system was constructed from four subsystems: ecological environment, resources, society, and economy. The spatial pattern and dynamic evolution of urban vulnerability from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed using the entropy method, comprehensive index method, and grey relational grade. The results were as follows. (1) Spatially, the urban vulnerability pattern of Heilongjiang Province in 2015 showed clustering of high-vulnerability areas, and then the overall urban vulnerability decreased and tended to be evenly distributed. (2) In terms of time, the urban vulnerability of Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2013 and gradually decreased from 2013 to 2019. Resource vulnerability, ecological vulnerability, and social vulnerability steadily decreased, whereas economic vulnerability first increased and then decreased. (3) The correlation between urban comprehensive vulnerability and ecological vulnerability in Heilongjiang Province was the highest in 2010, and the correlation between urban vulnerability and economic vulnerability was the highest in 2013 – 2015, and then the correlation shifted to social vulnerability. In the future, during the revitalization of the old industrial bases, Heilongjiang Province should strengthen economic transformation, optimize the industrial structure, strengthen ecological civilization, and improve the utilization rate of resources.