Quo Vadis? External Powers in a Changing Gulf Region

This introduction sets the theoretical framework for explaining and understanding the changing dynamic between the external powers and the Arab Gulf monarchies. It begins with an historical overview of the Gulf monarchies’ long relationships with extra-regional actors, focusing on their bilateral alliances with the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The analysis in this section emphasizes the use of realist approaches to international politics - such as the balance of power and balance of threat strategies – to both material and ideational challenges to the Gulf monarchies. The chapter then proceeds to highlight the roles played by relative newcomers to the Gulf at the dawn of the 21st century. France, China, and South Korea have made good use of their financial, economic, technological, and cultural statecraft. Finally, in the face of a more assertive foreign policy orientation on the part of the Arab Gulf monarchies in the wake of post-Arab Spring instability throughout the Middle East, the chapter considers whether this regional alliance model will once again give way to bilateral alliances. What opportunities for a larger regional role exist for powers that have traditionally not perceived the Gulf as within their sphere of interests? It then discusses how the contributions to this book address this changing dynamic, and analyzes the central themes discussed in this volume.