台灣利率政策與所得分配

所得分配不均一直以來為重要研究課題，而利率政策與所得分配關聯之研究方興未艾。文獻發現，利率上升可能會擴大所得分配不均，主要是因為低所得家戶容易受到利率上升的影響，產生收入異質性效應。截至目前為止，國內仍欠缺相關文獻。本研究使用工具變數局部投射模型，探討升息與家戶所得分配不均之關聯。實證結果與多數文獻發現一致，因低所得家戶多從事低階工作，在升息的緊縮環境之下，將使低所得家戶薪資及可支配所得減損大於高所得家戶，而使所得差距略擴大。然而，該影響是短暫的，並在2季內逐漸消退。另利用央行理事會會議資訊萃取利率政策衝擊，以局部投射模型進行衝擊反應分析，實證結果發現，前述結論亦成立，具穩健性。  Income inequality is a major problem, and the relationship between interest rates and income inequality is an extensively studied topic. Literature findings indicate that an increase in interest rates may increase income inequality; this occurs mainly because low-income households are more vulnerable than other households to the effects of interest rate increases. However, in Taiwan, few studies have explored this topic. Thus, the present study applies methods based on local projection instrumental variable regressions to investigate the relationship between interest rate increases and household income inequality. The empirical results are consistent with previous findings. This study revealed that individuals from low-income households are mostly engaged in low-level jobs and that when interest rates increase and economic conditions worsen, their disposable income is reduced to a greater extent relative to that of high-income households, leading to a slightly larger income gap. However, this phenomenon subsides within two quarters. In addition, this study used public information on board meetings to clarify the effects of Taiwan’s interest rate policy. The empirical results obtained through local projections verify the validity and robustness of the aforementioned explanation.