The Impact of Unemployment on the Dynamics of New Companies Entry

The state of labor markets and the unemployment rate are a factor influencing entrepreneurial activity and the processes of creating new firms. The article is devoted to the study of this issue on the example of the Russian economic model. The purpose of the article is to eliminate a gap in the Russian scientific literature associated with the lack of research on the impact of the unemployment factor on the entry of new firms. Using the example of statistical data of the Russian federal districts in the period 2005–2021, it was found that the entry parameters of new companies were characterized by a declining trend, with a sharp drop in times of crises (2009 and 2020). However, the multidirectional dynamics at the stages of recovery growth and local recessions were revealed. Modeling in paired regressions showed the nonlinear nature of the impact of unemployment on the dynamics of the entry of new firms. The results of evaluating the model with random effects showed the negative impact of unemployment on the entry of new firms on average for the entire analyzed period. In addition to the unemployment rate, significant factors in the dynamics of companies entry were the growth rates of real GRP, real monetary incomes of the population and the dynamics of the total number of companies in previous periods. The current economic situation requires increased attention to the situation in the regional labor markets and stimulating the business activity of Russian companies.