CAN RUSSIA’S HIGH MORTALITY RETURN UNTIL 2030 TO TRAJECTORY OF THE 1980IES AND REACH THE SDGS EVENLY ACROSS THE COUNTRY?

Background: This study reviews the ability of the Russian Federation to reduce the high mortality until 2030 evenly across the country and in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Methods: We adopted the method suggested by Haenzel for estimating Premature Years of Life Lost for the age group <70 years and applied a projected reduction of 33% by 2030 as proposed for SDG 3.4. To calculate the potential time gap we used the model of the United Nations Development Programme and standardized the rates by the OECD 1980 Standard Population employing the direct method. A positive time-gap indicates that the respective country is “On Track” to achieve the target on time or even earlier; a negative value indicates that it may still be “Likely” or even “Unlikely” to achieve the target within the target timeframe i.e. in 2030. A country is still considered likely to achieve the target as long as a negative value for time-gap does not make up for less than -25% of the remaining time. For the determination of the gap in 2024 and 2030 and the analysis of the trajectory of life expectancy data, we made use of the database of the World Bank and identified the peak data before and after the crisis during the 1990ies. Results: We analysed the eight Federal Districts of the Russian Federation with regard to their premature mortality as there are: North Caucasus, South, Privolzhskiy (Volga), Far East, Uralskiy, Siberian, Central, and North West Federal Districts. In addition, we determine whether each of the eight districts is on track to reach the SDG target by 2030. All districts reach the target in advance of 2030, the District of North Caucasus 10.6 years earlier and the North West District still 5 years in advance of 2030. For comparison, the progress of the EU-27 has been calculated which - at a considerably lower level - shows smaller rates of reduction and therefore a delay of -2.2 years in 2030. If Russia keeps the present level of effort the reduction by one third of the level of premature mortality as in 2013 will be in reach already in 2024 i.e. 5.9 years in advance of the SDG3 target for 2030. This target is achieved quite evenly also throughout the 8 districts of the Russian Federation between 10.6 and 5.0 years in advance and in selected districts/republics with the highest and lowest mortality rates. Conclusion: After the steep decrease of life expectancy during the 1990ies the Russian Federation returned to the original trajectory. Keywords: Russian Federation, Public Health, Premature Mortality, SDG 3, Gap Analysis