流行病不稳定条件下的家庭经济

M. Fedyk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该学术论文的目的在于评估大流行病不稳定条件下家庭的收入、支出和储蓄状况。研究方法基于对乌克兰2010-2020年家庭收入、资源和储蓄数据的统计分析。科学上的新颖性涉及确定大流行对家庭经济的积极和消极影响。结论。研究揭示了大流行病蔓延对家庭经济的积极和消极影响,结果是乌克兰的经济活动下降和失业率上升。已确定,在2020年大流行期间,费用减少2%,资源增加3%。2020年,食品和非酒精饮料的支出份额从46.6%增加到2019年的48.1%,非食品商品和服务的支出份额从41.5%下降到39.8%。人均月收入低于实际温饱水平的人口,2019年为890万人(23.1%),2020年为880万人(23.2%)。尽管专家们在两种情况下对COVID-19传播可能导致的贫困增加进行了评估(根据绝对标准,贫困将从27.2%增加到43.6%;根据绝对标准,它将从27.2%增加到50.8%。值得注意的是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对低收入人口中最贫困阶层产生了负面影响。已经确定,在2019冠状病毒病的社会经济影响背景下,更难实现自身收入多样化的家庭是最脆弱的群体。以下类别受疫情影响最大(与基线情景相比,这些类别的贫困增加幅度最大),即:有三个或三个以上子女的家庭;有子女的单亲父母;有三岁以下儿童的家庭;65岁以上的单身退休人员。与此同时,由于货币政策确保了稳定的通货膨胀水平和存款回报率,家庭存款的比例在过去10年里增长了27%。但值得注意的是,隔离和新冠肺炎疫情导致部分人口资源从定期存款流向银行卡和储蓄账户。毕竟,由于未来事态发展的不确定性,市民们希望有闲钱,以备不时之需。关键词:家庭、收入、资源、消费支出、经济危机、疫情不稳定、隔离限制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economy of households under conditions of pandemic instability
The purpose of the academic paper lies in assessing the state of income, expenditure and savings of households under conditions of pandemic instability. The research methodology is based on the statistical analysis of data on income, resources and savings of households in Ukraine for 2010-2020. The scientific novelty involves identifying the positive and negative effects of the pandemic on the household economy. Conclusions. The positive and negative effects of the impact of spreading the pandemic on the household economy have been revealed in the research, and as a result, the decline in economic activity and the growth of unemployment in Ukraine. It has been determined that in the period of 2020 pandemic, costs decreased by 2% and resources increased by 3%. In 2020, the share of expenditures on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased from 46,6% to 48,1% in 2019, and on non-food goods and services - decreased from 41,5% to 39,8%. The population with per capita equivalent total income per month, below the actual subsistence level, was 8,9 million people in 2019 (23,1%), in 2020 – 8,8 million people (23,2%). Despite experts’ assessments of the likely increase in poverty as a result of COVID-19 spreading under two scenarios (according to the absolute criterion, it will increase from 27,2 to 43,6%; according to an absolute criterion, it will increase from 27,2 to 50,8%). It can be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the poorest sections of the population with low incomes. It has been determined that in the context of social-economic impact of COVID-19, families who find it more difficult to diversify their own incomes are the most vulnerable ones. The following categories have been most affected by the pandemic (they will have had the largest increase in poverty compared to the baseline scenario), namely: households with three or more children; single parents with children; households with children under three; single retirees over 65 years.Along with this, thanks to the monetary policy that has ensured a stable level of inflation and return on deposits, the share of household deposits has increased the most in the last ten years to 27%. However, it is worth noting that quarantine and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a trend towards a partial flow of population resources from time deposits to card and savings accounts. After all, citizens sought to have free money in case of unforeseen expenses due to the uncertainty of the future development of events. Key words: households, income, resources, consumer expenditures, economic crisis, pandemic instability, quarantine restrictions.
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