论第一、二、三代生物柴油原料的经济可行性

J. Ng, J. A. Tan, Wee Lis Lim, C. Chong, W. Chong
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引用次数: 2

摘要

随着全球人口增长导致能源消费持续上升,可再生能源在全球整体能源结构中的份额一直在飙升。除了对不可再生资源枯竭的担忧,化石燃料也被证明是全球变暖的主要原因之一。在全球范围内寻找替代燃料的同时,生物柴油已成为最可行的候选燃料之一。本研究旨在通过详细分析三代生物柴油(即食用生物柴油、非食用生物柴油和藻类生物柴油)的原料准备情况和经济可行性,概述生物柴油取代化石柴油的可行性。本文计算了全球176个国家的生物柴油总产量。第一代和第二代生物柴油的产量达到850亿升,有可能超过目前产量的三倍。生物柴油生产的盈利能力在很大程度上取决于原油价格。当原油价格达到133.9美元/桶的峰值时,全球潜在生物柴油产量的74%可以盈利,为可再生能源结构贡献了135.45吉瓦。在一切照旧的情况下,食用油生物柴油仍将是主要的原料类别。尽管如此,仍有15个国家能够用第二代非食用生物柴油取代部分柴油消费,其中两个国家能够完全取代化石柴油。第三代藻类生物柴油的实施可以节省高达93%的耕地。总之,生物柴油代表了不可持续的化石柴油使用的一个很好的替代品,并有助于可再生能源的组合。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the economic feasibility of the first, second and third generations biodiesel feedstock
The share of renewable energy resources has been surging in the overall global energy mix, as energy consumption continues to rise due to the global population growth. Fears of the non-renewable resources depletion aside, fossil fuels have also been proven to be one of the main causes of global warming. Whilst in search of alternative fuels worldwide, biodiesel has emerged as one of the most viable candidates. This study aims to provide an overview on the feasibility of biodiesel to supplant fossil diesel through detailed analysis of feedstock readiness and economic viabilities of the implementations of three generations of biodiesel, i.e. edible, non-edible and algae-based biodiesel. In this paper, the global total production of biodiesel of 176 countries is calculated. At 85 billion litres, the first and second generation biodiesel production has the potential to exceed its current production by three times. The profitability of the biodiesel production relies heavily on the crude oil price. When the crude oil price peaked at 133.9 USD/bbl, 74% of the global potential biodiesel production can be made profitably, contributing 135.45 GW into the renewable energy mix. With business as usual scenario, edible oil biodiesel will remain to be the dominant category of feedstock. Nonetheless, 15 countries are able to replace portions of diesel consumption with second generation non-edible biodiesel, with two being able to entirely supplant fossil diesel with it The implementation of third generation algae-based biodiesel can save up to 93% of arable land. In all, biodiesel represents a great alternative to the unsustainable fossil diesel usage and contributes to the renewable energy mix.
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