Environmental variation vs co-occurrence of two fish families (Gerreidae and Ariidae) in Terminos Lagoon, Campeche, Mexico

Terminos Lagoon is recognized as an ecosystem of great diversity and productivity in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is also the site of various anthropogenic activities in the lagoon as well as in its surroundings. In addition, in recent years this lagoon has showed variations in temperature and salinity as a result of global warming and/or watershed management. This has generated variations in the structure and function of fish communities, among other taxonomic groups. IIn this work, we analyze the changes in abundance and distribution associated with modifications in the salinity of fish species from two key families (Ariidae y Gerreidae) during the years 1980, 1998, and 2011. Salinity is analyzed in the three periods (ANOVA, Tukey (HSD); the abundance of species, environmental breadth according to salinity (Levins Index), environmental overlap (Pianka Index), and co-occurrence (C-score) are also analyzed. Statistical differences were tested using the null model. The results showed high variability in salinity, with a tendency to increase during the studied period with 24.7, 27.9, and 28.4 UPS for each year, respectively (p < 0.0001). The abundance of both families increased from 1980 to 1998 and decreased in 2011 (82% for Ariidae and 62% for Gerreidae). The C-score ranged from 1.07 in 1980 to 0.78 in 1998 and 2.71 in 2011. The observed averages were significantly lower than the simulated average (P <0.0001). In conclusion, the increase in salinity is probably one of the causes of a variation in the abundance of fish species. According to a possible more limited competition for space, fish abundance and C-score fluctuated inversely, indicating a trend towards a more generalist fish community. Keywords: Environmental breadth, environmental overlapping, co-ocurrence, and salinity gradient.