China’s Emerging Global Middle Class

This chapter examines China’s middle class by using CHIP data for 2002, 2007, and 2013. “Middle class” is defined as having income high enough not to be regarded as poor but not so high as to be regarded as rich if living in a high-income country. Based on this definition, China’s middle class was extremely small in 2002; grew but was still less than 10 percent of the population in 2007; and by 2013 had expanded to one-fifth of China’s population, roughly 250 million people. Further analysis shows that China’s middle class is largely urban, lives in the East, and has other distinctive characteristics. Simulations reveal that past growth of China’s middle class was due to across-the-board, shared income growth rather than a redistribution of income. As of 2020 China’s middle class should double in size, constituting a majority of urban residents but still a small minority of rural residents.