基于Fama-French五因素模型的新冠肺炎疫情期间箱包行业投资趋势分析

Qihan Cong, Chi-sau. Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2020年初,新冠肺炎疫情给全球经济带来严重冲击。随着许多制造业的关闭,大量员工失去了工作,居民消费迅速下降,许多公司破产。在此背景下,本文研究了疫情对box行业的影响,并运用Fama-French五因素模型分析了疫情前后box行业各因素的变化。结果表明,市场因子系数因疫情而降低。这表明该行业对市场波动不太敏感,规模因素变得多余。BM比率因子由冗余变为显著,且系数为正,表明疫情后投资者更倾向于box行业的价值型股票。盈利能力因子始终是冗余的,投资风格因子由显著变为冗余,说明新冠疫情给整个行业带来了机遇和挑战。这也表明,在疫情期间,盒子行业中账面市值比高、发展稳定的公司更有投资推荐价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of the Investment Trend of Boxes Industry During the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on the Fama-French Five-Factor Model
In early 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 severely hits the global economy. With the closure of many manufacturing industries, a large number of employees have lost their jobs, residential consumption fells rapidly and many firms go bankrupt. Under such background, this paper investigates the impact of the epidemic on the Boxes industry and analyzes the changes of each factor in the Boxes industry before and after the epidemic using the Fama-French five-factor model. The results show that the coefficient of market factor decreases due to the epidemic. It indicates that the industry is less sensitive to market volatility and the size factor becomes redundant. The BM ration factor changes from redundant to significant and the coefficient is positive, which indicates that investors prefer value stocks in the Boxes industry after the epidemic. The profitability factor is always redundant and the investment style factor changes from significant to redundant, showing that the COVID-19 pandemic brings opportunities and challenges to the whole industry. It also indicates that companies with a high book-to-market ratio and stable development in the Boxes industry are more valuable for investment recommendation during the epidemic.
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