在发展背景下理解贫困和使用系统动力学方法的减贫政策

F. Ahmad, I. Kustiwan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

贫困是一种不良的发展现象,其主要特征是缺乏福利,它可能导致一些社会问题,如犯罪、教育水平低和健康状况差。总的来说,自2000年以来,印度尼西亚的贫困人口数量一直在下降,表现好坏参半。本研究的目的是探讨贫困在社会经济背景下是如何建构的,以及扶贫政策如何在对抗国家贫困中发挥作用。在本研究中,贫困是从绝对贫困的角度来看待的,绝对贫困是由中央统计局推出的贫困线所表示的。运用系统动力学方法对模型进行了模拟,结果表明:(1)贫困是由支出相互作用、支出分布和贫困线简单构建的;(b)如果在模型中没有考虑对社会有直接影响的扶贫预算,那么将导致全国贫困比例增加15%-18%;(三)宏观层面和长期可实施的各种政策导向机制有:(1)价格调控;(二)改善社会支出分配;(3)工资调整,特别是针对低收入群体。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Understanding Poverty In The Development Context And Poverty Reduction Policy Using System Dynamics Approach
ASBTRACT Poverty is an undesirable phenomenon of development with the main characteristic of lack of welfare which might lead to some social problems such as criminality, low-level education and poor health condition. Generally, since 2000, Indonesia has been experiencing the decrease number of the poor with its up(s) and down(s) performance. The objective of this study is to explore how the poverty is constructed in the context of socio-economic and how the poverty alleviation policy plays a role in combating the national poverty. In this study, the poverty is seen from the perspective of absolute poverty indicated by the poverty line launched by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Conducted with System Dynamics approach, the model simulation results several following findings: (a) the poverty is simply constructed of the expenditure interaction, expenditure distribution, and poverty line; (b) if the budgeting of the poverty alleviation which has direct impact to the society is not being considered in the model then it will cause to the increasing percentage of the national poverty by 15%-18%; and (c) various mechanisms of policy direction in the macro level and long term period that could be implemented are as followed: (1) price control; (2) improvement of the society expenditure distribution; and (3) wage adjustment particularly for the lowincome group.
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