Scenario Derivation of the Key Brittleness Factors on the Urban Demolition

From the perspective of complex system brittleness, firstly, we explore and condense 30 typical cases of urban demolition conflict from horizontal and vertical dimensions to obtain 24 brittleness factors from three levels, and select 17 key brittleness factors inducing conflicts according to the questionnaire survey data; secondly, using replicated dynamic mechanism of evolutionary game, we build the urban demolition conflict diffusion equation which embedded the key brittleness factors; Finally, the key brittleness factors that induce the conflicts are deducted dynamically according to different scenarios. The results show that whether the urban demolition system brittleness is stimulated depends on strategic interaction among removal subjects based on the benefit game. And the process of the diffusion in urban demolition conflicts reflects self-organizing characteristics of complex system. Besides, without changing the existing system, the diffusion rate have a positive relationship with the gain of local government who take strategy of forced demolition and relocated households who take strategy of resistance, the initial scale of taking resistance strategy as well as the degree of information diffusion. What's more the diffusion rate have a negative relationship with the fairness perception of relocated households.