评价用于估计阿尔及利亚各站点风速威布尔参数的各种方法

S. Louassa, A. Kaabeche, M. Djamai
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文采用7种数值方法,利用阿尔及利亚各气象站的风速资料估计威布尔参数。研究的方法有最小二乘法(LSM)、最大似然法(MLM)、经验法(EM)、矩量法(MOM)、修正最大似然法(MMLM)、能量模式因子法(EPFM)和艾森经验法(EML)。通过均方根误差(RMSE)、相关系数(R2)和卡方检验(χ2)三种统计检验,将这些方法得到的结果与所提供的数据进行比较,以确定其准确性和精密度。本研究中使用的风速数据是在阿尔及利亚的6个气象站测量的。这些数据是在1981年至2004年期间在离地面10米的地方记录的。结果表明,修正极大似然法对威布尔分布的拟合效果最好,矩量法对所有站点的拟合程度最低。本文还对研究区风的特征进行了详细的分析。从结果来看,廷杜夫站是风最大的站点,特别是在冬季。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluation of diverse methods used to estimate Weibull parameters for wind speed in various Algerian stations
In this paper, seven numerical methods have been used to estimate Weibull parameters using wind speed data for various Algerian stations. The investigated methods are least square method (LSM), the maximum likelihood method (MLM), the empirical method (EM), the moment method (MOM), the modified maximum likelihood method (MMLM), the energy pattern factor method (EPFM) and empirical method of Iysen (EML). The results obtained from these methods have been compared with the provided data to find their accuracy and precision based on three statistical tests namely: the root mean square errors (RMSE), the correlation coefficient (R2) and the Chi-square test (χ2). Wind speed data used in the present study have been measured at six (06) Algerian weather stations. These data were recorded at 10 m above the ground during the period from 1981 to 2004. Results in this paper indicate that modified maximum likelihood method present the best fit to Weibull distribution and moment method provides the lowest degree of fit for all the stations. This study gives also a detailed analysis of wind characteristics in the study area. It appears from the results that Tindouf station is the windiest site especially in winter months.
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