2008 - 2017年艾伯塔省石化行业压力容器和管道事故安全与风险管理分析

Mohamed Esouilem, A. Bouzid, S. Nadeau
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近几十年来,北美发生了许多涉及压力容器和管道部件(PVP)的事故。已经进行了几项研究,以了解其原因并找到适当的解决方案来减少其频率。大多数研究都集中在这些事故的技术原因和随后的安全管理策略的实施上。这些研究表明,泄漏和破裂是主要的技术原因。从这个角度来看,深化对泄漏和破裂事故的研究具有重要意义。仅在阿尔伯塔省,阿尔伯塔能源监管机构(AER)就表明,自1990年以来,超过15种根本原因导致PVP泄漏和破裂失败。本文分析了2008年至2017年艾伯塔省石化行业事故的频率、严重程度、原因和相关风险。本研究提出了一个指数衰减来估计涉及PVP的事故频率,并根据严重程度分析确定最重要的原因。基于所建立的模型的结果表明,2008 - 2017年的事故频率预测与观测结果吻合较好。严重程度分析结果表明,造成事故的主要因素是腐蚀、施工缺陷和超压。最后,所提出的PVP故障观察和预测的频率和严重程度模型需要改进,以更好地预测风险并有助于预防。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Safety and Risk Management Analysis of Accidents Related to Pressure Vessels and Piping in Alberta Petrochemical Industry From 2008 to 2017
In recent decades, many accidents involving pressure vessels and piping components (PVP) have occurred in North-America. Several studies have been conducted to understand their causes and find suitable solutions to reduce their frequency. Most of the researches have focused on the technical causes of these accidents and the subsequent implementation of safety management strategies. These researches highlight that the main technical causes are leak and rupture. From this standpoint, it is important to deepen the study of leaks and ruptures accidents. In Alberta alone, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) demonstrated that more than 15 root causes initiated leak and rupture failures in PVP since 1990. This paper presents an analysis of the frequency of accidents, their severity, their causes and the risk associated in the Alberta petrochemical industry from 2008 to 2017. This study proposes an exponential decay to estimate the frequency of accidents involving PVP and identifies the most important causes based on a severity analysis. The results based on the developed model show that there is a good agreement between the predicted and observed accidents frequency from 2008 to 2017. The severity analysis results show that the main factors contributing to accidents are corrosion, construction deficiency and overpressure. Finally, the proposed model of frequency and severity of observed and predicted PVP failures needs improvements to better predict the risks and be useful for prevention.
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