Um Estudo sobre Motivadores e Deterrentes de Evasão no Curso de Sistemas de Informação

Dropping out in higher education is a serious problem that has been investigated for decades and causes great harm to individuals, edu-cational institutions, and society as a whole. This article presents a case study on the application of the survival analysis combinedwith the construction of predictive models in the identificationmotivating and deterrent elements of dropout in an undergraduateprogram in Information Systems at a public institution of higher education in Brazil. Methods of educational data mining and pro-babilistic modeling were applied to student data to model students’ expected completion of the course, semester by semester. The re-sults of the survival analysis are consistent with the literature and indicate the greatest risk of dropout is in the initial semesters ofthe course, while the identification of characteristics of dropoutmakes it clear that the subjects of the first two semesters are thebiggest barriers of the course retaining about 50% of the studentpopulation.