Canadian Arctic Shipping and Emission Assessment

The changing Arctic environment is a significant consideration in the forecast of future marine emissions stemming from the potential increase in natural resource extraction and inter-and intra-Arctic shipping. The Transport Development Centre (TDC) of Transport Canada has carried out a vessel emission inventory study for marine vessels operating in the Canadian Arctic. The inventory comprises a baseline assessment for the years 2002 to 2007 and forecasts to 2010, 2020, and 2050. The inventory utilizes a “bottom-up” vessel activity based approach consistent with current best practices and was completed using the marine emission inventory tool (MEIT). The forecasts were based on expected population growth, and economic activities in the Arctic. Also taken into consideration are the changes and projections for the Arctic environment, specifically when and to what extent the ice will recede allowing for increased vessel access to the Arctic. The forecast shows that by 2050 a significant increase in Green-house gas (GHG) and emissions are expected to occur due to an increase in intra-Arctic shipping resource extraction and eco-tourism. This translates into a five-fold increase for both CO2 and NOx and significant increases in other criteria air contaminants (CAC) especially if large-scale gas production occurs in the western arctic region of Canada. The forecast also includes several scenarios such as the designation of the Arctic as an Emission Control Area (ECA) and the harmonization with EPA and IMO Marpol regulations for marine fuel and engine emission standards, which would have the potential to lower CAC emissions.