基于博弈论模型的销售量流计算

V. Abramov, E. J. Liskina, S. S. Mamonov, S. Vidov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,我们为企业开发了一个正式的决策模型,用于将来销售单一产品。该模型以对抗性二人博弈的形式建立。支付函数是企业的利润。我们考虑了目标细分市场的有限性和企业竞争对手的供给量。销售量是通过平均最佳无风险和可接受的风险值来计算的。我们使用竞争性投标的概率分布预测作为此类投标数量的信息。作为模型应用的结果,我们计算了该产品在几个有前景的交易期的推荐销量和企业的利润预测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Calculation of the Sales Volumes Flow Based on the Game-Theoretic Model
In this article, we have developed a formal decisionmaking model for an enterprise to market a single product in the future. The model is built in the form of an antagonistic twoperson game. The payoff function is the profit of the enterprise. We took into account the limitedness of the target segment and the supply volume of the enterprise competitors. Sales volumes were calculated by averaging the optimal risk-free and acceptable risk values. We used the forecasts of the probability distributions of competitive bids as information on the volume of such bids. As a result of the model application, we calculated the recommended sales volumes of the product and profit forecasts for the enterprise at several promising trading periods.
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