{"title":"注意(贸易)差额!建立贸易壁垒的成本有多高?","authors":"Beata Gafka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3702630","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Brexit referendum disrupted global trade: UK's exchange with EU and numerous third countries would suffer. Relative stock prices reacted accordingly with the damage greater and longer-lasting for the UK than the block. UK-focused manufacturing fared worst in both regions. UK's EU-exposed services firms were also impacted – the market correctly expected December 2020 ''no-deal'' outcome for that sector. Third-country exposure attenuated the shock's impact on EU but not UK companies. Consequently, the UK zone factor underperformed the old-EU one by 20 pp between 2016 and 2019. Brexit exposure high-low portfolio explains 70% of the time-series variation in this underperformance. Overall, the results showcase impact of trade de-liberalization on firm and country business risk.","PeriodicalId":296326,"journal":{"name":"International Institutions: European Union eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mind the (trade) gap! How costly is erecting barriers to trade?\",\"authors\":\"Beata Gafka\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3702630\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Brexit referendum disrupted global trade: UK's exchange with EU and numerous third countries would suffer. Relative stock prices reacted accordingly with the damage greater and longer-lasting for the UK than the block. UK-focused manufacturing fared worst in both regions. UK's EU-exposed services firms were also impacted – the market correctly expected December 2020 ''no-deal'' outcome for that sector. Third-country exposure attenuated the shock's impact on EU but not UK companies. Consequently, the UK zone factor underperformed the old-EU one by 20 pp between 2016 and 2019. Brexit exposure high-low portfolio explains 70% of the time-series variation in this underperformance. Overall, the results showcase impact of trade de-liberalization on firm and country business risk.\",\"PeriodicalId\":296326,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Institutions: European Union eJournal\",\"volume\":\"17 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-10-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Institutions: European Union eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702630\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Institutions: European Union eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702630","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Mind the (trade) gap! How costly is erecting barriers to trade?
Brexit referendum disrupted global trade: UK's exchange with EU and numerous third countries would suffer. Relative stock prices reacted accordingly with the damage greater and longer-lasting for the UK than the block. UK-focused manufacturing fared worst in both regions. UK's EU-exposed services firms were also impacted – the market correctly expected December 2020 ''no-deal'' outcome for that sector. Third-country exposure attenuated the shock's impact on EU but not UK companies. Consequently, the UK zone factor underperformed the old-EU one by 20 pp between 2016 and 2019. Brexit exposure high-low portfolio explains 70% of the time-series variation in this underperformance. Overall, the results showcase impact of trade de-liberalization on firm and country business risk.
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