{"title":"黑天鹅、龙王与国际核法律的不确定性","authors":"J. Handrlica","doi":"10.1093/JWELB/JWAB002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Black swans and dragon kings both represent metaphors for extremely large adverse events with tremendous impact on society and industry. However, while dragon kings refer to those harmful events, which are predictable to some degree, black swans are a surprise because the consequence of them far exceeds what anyone had previously estimated, even using sophisticated risk analysis of low probability events. Nuclear accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima represent salient examples of black swans. This article aims to address how international nuclear law copes with dragon kings and how black swans may impact existing legal framework on peaceful uses of nuclear energy worldwide.","PeriodicalId":427865,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of World Energy Law & Business","volume":"47 7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Black swans, dragon kings and the uncertainty in international nuclear law\",\"authors\":\"J. Handrlica\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/JWELB/JWAB002\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Black swans and dragon kings both represent metaphors for extremely large adverse events with tremendous impact on society and industry. However, while dragon kings refer to those harmful events, which are predictable to some degree, black swans are a surprise because the consequence of them far exceeds what anyone had previously estimated, even using sophisticated risk analysis of low probability events. Nuclear accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima represent salient examples of black swans. This article aims to address how international nuclear law copes with dragon kings and how black swans may impact existing legal framework on peaceful uses of nuclear energy worldwide.\",\"PeriodicalId\":427865,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The Journal of World Energy Law & Business\",\"volume\":\"47 7 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-02-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The Journal of World Energy Law & Business\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/JWELB/JWAB002\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Journal of World Energy Law & Business","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/JWELB/JWAB002","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Black swans, dragon kings and the uncertainty in international nuclear law
Black swans and dragon kings both represent metaphors for extremely large adverse events with tremendous impact on society and industry. However, while dragon kings refer to those harmful events, which are predictable to some degree, black swans are a surprise because the consequence of them far exceeds what anyone had previously estimated, even using sophisticated risk analysis of low probability events. Nuclear accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima represent salient examples of black swans. This article aims to address how international nuclear law copes with dragon kings and how black swans may impact existing legal framework on peaceful uses of nuclear energy worldwide.
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