从结构未观察成分模型分析经济增长:以塞内加尔为例

S. Bates, C. Ndiaye
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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用结构未观察成分(UC)模型,本研究将通过关注潜在产出、GDP周期和GDP冲击类型来分析塞内加尔独立50年后的经济增长路径。经验证据表明,库存周期主要驱动GDP的短期组成部分,其波动程度随时间变化。冲击的主要来源是外部决定因素。但是,特别是自1994年货币贬值以来,它们的持续影响已经减轻。国际机构推动了塞内加尔相对成功的GDP增长道路。然而,需要进行一些结构性的内部改进,以平衡财政和生产缺陷,从而巩固抵御冲击的能力和宏观经济的稳定。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analyzing Economic Growth From Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal
Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study will analyze the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle, and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives the GDP short-term component with a time-varying extent of fluctuations. The main sources of shocks result from external determining factors. However, their persistent effects have been mitigated particularly since the devaluation of 1994. International institutions have motivated the relative successful GDP growth path of Senegal. Nevertheless, some structural internal improvements are needed to balance the financial and productive flaws in order to consolidate both the resilience to shocks as well as the macroeconomic stabilization.
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