《世界经济展望》回顾

D. Prates, C. Baltar
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文对国际货币基金组织(IMF)于2018年4月发布的旗舰报告《世界经济展望》进行了批判性回顾。在总结了第一章所描述的全球前景之后,我们将重点放在深入研究长期经济增长决定因素的三个分析章节上。尽管报告承认非正统增长理论所强调的制造业在生产率、就业和收入分配动态中的作用,但它得出的结论是,服务业可以为生产率的提高提供相当大的空间,有助于各国工人人均收入的趋同。面对这一诊断,报告认为,补贴制造业和退出贸易自由化都不是支持公平增长的最佳政策反应。因此,IMF再一次只是部分地接受了非正统观点。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Review of the World Economic Outlook
The paper presents a critical review of the World Economic Outlook, the flagship report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), launched in April 2018. After summarizing the global outlook depicted in chapter 1, we focus on the three analytical chapters that dig into the determinants of long-term economic growth. Although the report recognizes the role of manufacturing in the dynamics of productivity, employment and income distribution stressed by the heterodox growth theory, it concludes that services can offer considerable scope for productivity gains, contributing to the convergence of income per worker across countries. In face of this diagnostic, the report argues that neither subsidize manufacturing nor step back on trade liberalization are the best policies responses to support equitable growth. Hence, once more, the IMF embraced the heterodox perspective only partially.
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