全球燃料和能源综合企业在全球结构转型中的发展特点

Анатолий Петрович Дзюба
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摘要

本文研究了1971年至今全球燃料和能源部门在结构转型下的发展特征。在材料中,作者分析了全球发电的燃料结构,比较了全球天然气消费结构,计算和评估了全球人均各种能源消费的动态,并分析了按购买力平价计算的各种能源含量的全球指标对国内生产总值的动态。此外,本文还对可再生能源在全球电力能源生产总量中所占比重的变化结构指标、部分国家可再生电力产业发展投资结构以及1990年以来全球二氧化碳排放量进行了实证分析。首先,研究揭示了天然气和可再生能源技术等环境友好且具有成本效益的能源在发电燃料结构中加强了其在全球能源平衡中的地位,同时取代了非环境的石油和煤炭。其次,事实证明,以上个世纪全球消耗的所有主要能源的能量含量为基础计算的全球能源效率水平指标正在不断下降。本文描述了可再生能源在全球电力生产总量中所占份额显著增长的结构。这一趋势之所以成为可能,是因为可再生能源生产技术的可及性、全球市场上原油碳氢化合物成本的上升、大多数国家在国家政策层面对“绿色”能源的支持以及对可再生能源的大规模投资。根据这项研究,得出的结论是,管理全球燃料和能源部门发展的政策对其未来以及对世界各国,主要是俄罗斯联邦的全球经济的发展都有重大影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ОСОБЕННОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ МИРОВОГО ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО КОМПЛЕКСА В УСЛОВИЯХ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ СТРУКТУРНОЙ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ
The article studies the features of the global fuel and energy sector’s development under structural transformational changes from 1971 to the present day. In the materials, the author analyzes the fuel structure of global generated electricity, compares the structure of global natural gas consumption, calculates and evaluates the dynamics of global consumption of various energy sources per capita, and analyzes the dynamics of global indicators of energy content of various energy sources to gross domestic product at purchasing power parity. Furthermore, an empirical analysis of indicators of the structure of change in renewable energy sources’ share of global gross production of electric power energy is conducted, as is the analysis of the structure of investments into the development of the renewable electric power industry in some countries, as well as global CO2 emissions since 1990. Firstly, the study reveals environmentally friendly and cost-effective energy sources such as natural gas and renewable energy sources technology, which strengthen their position in the global energy balance in the fuel structure of electric power generation while displace non-environmental petroleum and coal. Secondly, it has been proven that the indicators of the global energy efficiency level, calculated based on the energy content of all major energy sources consumed globally over the last century, are constantly dropping. The article describes the structure of a significant growth in renewable energy sources share of global gross production of electrical power. This trend is possible due to the accessibility of the technology for the production of renewable energy sources, the rise in the cost of crude hydrocarbons on global markets, “green” energy support at the state policy level in most countries, and massive investment in renewable energy sources. As a result of the study, it was concluded that the policy of managing the development of the global fuel and energy sector has a significant impact both on its future and on the development of the global economies of the world’s countries, primarily the Russian Federation.
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