残差GM(1,1)灾害模型在四川干旱预报中的应用

2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS 2009) Pub Date : 2009-11-01 DOI:10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408256

Xiangcheng Jiang, Senfa Chen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于1949年以来四川作物干旱面积数据，提出了灰色系统理论与灰色灾害残差GM(1,1)模型的混合方法，对不同干旱面积阈值的年序列进行处理。结合干旱预测年集的包含关系，对四川干旱残差GM(1,1)灾害模型的预测可靠性进行了改进。

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Application of the residual GM(1,1) calamities model to aridity forecast in Sichuan

Based on the data of crop aridity area in Sichuan since 1949, we propose a hybrid method of the grey system theory and modeling grey calamities residual GM(1,1) model to process the year series of various threshold of drought acreage. Combining inclusion relation of drought predication years sets, we make improvement on forecast reliability of residual GM(1,1) calamities model in Sichuan aridity.

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2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS 2009)

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