孟加拉国在全球变暖1.5°C、2°C和4°C时的适应努力和政策指南

S. Bala, A. Islam, G. Islam, Motahar Hosen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

孟加拉国将成为受气候变化影响最严重的国家。评估了气候变化在1.5°C、2°C和4°C的特定变暖水平(SWLs)下对孟加拉国自然和社会系统的影响。11个区域气候模型的结果表明,到本世纪末,孟加拉国夏季平均气温可能从3.24°C上升到5.77°C,而年平均降水量可能增加25%。在1.5°C的特定升温水平下,孟加拉国的Boro和Aman水稻产量趋势预计将逐渐下降2-15%,在2°C的特定升温水平下下降5-20%,在4°C的特定升温水平下下降5-25%。针对不同的SWLs和海平面上升提出了一些适应方案。为swl管理气候可能是到2020年的“短期”,到2050年的“中期”和到2080年的“长期”。最终目标是建立一个可持续的、有韧性的和转型的孟加拉国,在孟加拉国,需要更多的政策文件、战略和行动计划,将适应气候变化纳入主流。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Adaptation Efforts and Policy Guidelines for Bangladesh at Global Warming of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C
Bangladesh is going to be the worst-hit country from the climate change. The impacts of climate change at specific warming levels (SWLs) of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C upon the natural and social systems of Bangladesh are assessed. Eleven regional climate models' findings show that the average Bangladesh summer temperature is likely to rise from 3.24°C to 5.77°C while the mean annual precipitation is likely to increase up to 25% by the end of the century. The yield trends of Bangladesh in terms of Boro and Aman rice are projected to gradually decrease from 2-15% at a specific warming level of 1.5°C, 5-20% at a specific warming level of 2°C, and 5-25% at a specific warming level of 4°C. A few adaptation options are proposed for different SWLs and sea-level rise. Managing climate for SWLs could be for ‘short term' up to 2020, ‘medium term' up to 2050, and ‘long term' up to 2080. The end goal is a sustainable, resilient, and transformed Bangladesh, where additional policy documents, strategies, and action plans to mainstream adaptation to combat climate change are necessary.
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