China's Economic Growth, Changing Comparative Advantages and Agricultural Trade

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy during the 1980s was accompanied by an equally rapid shift in China's comparative advantage towards light manufactures, such as textiles and clothing, at the expense of agriculture. If that economy were to resume the economic reform process that was stalled in 1988-89, its comparative advantages would move even further in that direction, following the pattern of its more industrialised neighbours. Dependence on agricultural imports - particularly feed grains, cotton and wool would rise unless domestic prices for farm products are increased substantially. Model simulation results are presented to support this conclusion (which is based on theory and historical experience) and to indicate the orders of magnitude that might be involved under various assumptions. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for China and its trading partners, including Australia.