俄罗斯与全球水危机

A. Suzdaleva
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引用次数: 3

摘要

目前,许多国家正在经历淡水资源日益短缺的问题。这种情况的恶化将对不缺水的国家的经济和政治局势产生影响。因此,在可预见的未来,世界可能面临全球性的水危机。防止这种情况的唯一办法是通过形成国际淡水资源市场和区域间的水物流系统,开发现有水资源的新储备及其跨界供应。对于水出口国来说,这不仅会带来经济利益,还会带来更大的地缘政治意义。俄罗斯联邦在大西伯利亚河流中拥有大量淡水储备,这些河流经常引发灾难性的洪水。苏联后期讨论了将部分多余的排水(径流)转移到干旱的中亚共和国的项目。但这些项目引起了当地有生态意识的公众(生态学家)的愤慨。从那时起,俄罗斯联邦不再审议这类项目。作者坚持认为,应该根据最近与气候有关的事件来重新考虑解决这个问题的方法,这些事件证实了那些预测到2050年将出现全球水危机的科学家的观点。积极参与形成国际淡水资源市场必须列入俄罗斯联邦的外交政策议程。换句话说,这个国家需要发展自己的水外交,以在这个日益不稳定的世界中保护国家利益——类似于一些外国大国的经验。其目的是就区域间淡水供应达成互利的国际协定。主要的障碍是当地生态学家的抵制,他们保持着过时的刻板印象。传播有关这一问题的适当资料,主要是关于参与防止全球水危机的国际努力的国家生态利益的资料,可能会改变这种情况。拒绝向邻国出售过量的淡水可能导致那里出现紧急情况,从而导致非法移徙的激增,甚至企图用武力解决问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Russia and Global Water Crisis
Currently, many countries are experiencing a growing shortage of freshwater resources. Aggravation of such situation will have impact on economy and political situation in the countries which do not suffer from water deficiency. So, in the foreseeable future the world may face a global water crisis. The only way to prevent it is to develop new reserves of available water resources and their transborder supplies through formation of international market of fresh water resources and the interregional systems of water logistics. For water exporting countries this will bring not only economic benefits bur greater geopolitical significance. The Russian Federation possesses large reserves of fresh water in great Siberian Rivers that regularly cause catastrophic floods. Projects of transferring part of excess drain (runoff) to arid Central Asian republics were discussed in late years of the USSR. But these projects struck upon indignation of the local ecologically-minded public (ecologists). Since then the Russian Federation does not consider such projects. The author insists that the approach to this problem should to be reconsidered in the light of most recent climate-related events that substantiate the positions of those scientists who forecast a global water crisis until 2050. Active participation in formation of the international market of fresh waters resources has to be included into foreign policy agenda of the Russian Federation. In other words, this country needs to develop its own water diplomacy directed at protection of national interest in this increasingly unstable world – similarly to the experience of some foreign powers. The purpose is to achieve mutually advantageous international agreements on interregional supplies of fresh water. The main obstacle is the resistance of the local ecologists who maintain outdated stereotypes. The situation may be changed by dissemination of proper information on the issue, primarily concerning national ecological interests for participation in international efforts to prevent global water crisis. The refusal of sale of excess volumes of fresh water to neighboring countries may lead to emergency situations there and, consequently, to a burst of illegal migration and even attempts to solve the problem by force.
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