欧元区无再分配债务赎回基金纲要

Marika Cioffi, Pietro Rizza, Marzia Romanelli, Pietro Tommasino
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引用次数: 24

摘要

由于经济危机,欧元区的公共债务急剧增加,几个国家的公共债务仍处于历史高位。在一个货币联盟中,高债务成员国代表着对金融稳定的永久威胁,因为它们面临着巨大的展期风险——即使它们从根本上有偿付能力。鉴于成员国之间紧密的金融和经济联系,其中一个成员国的流动性危机将引发整个地区的动荡。尽管审慎的财政政策对于解决遗留债务问题至关重要,但要让债务恢复到(至少)危机前的水平需要时间。在此背景下,本文探讨了将一部分国家公共债务转移到欧洲赎回基金的可行性和可取性。作为交换,每个国家将每年向基金组织转移一笔资源。我们表明,设计这样一个方案是有可能的,这样它就不需要任何事前的跨国再分配,而欧元区作为一个整体将受益,因为成员国年度再融资需求的降低将改善金融稳定性。共同债务的一部分将在合理的年限内全部赎回。该计划不会危及国家削减债务的承诺;如果说有什么不同的话,那就是市场纪律将在边际上变得更加有效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Outline of a Redistribution-Free Debt Redemption Fund for the Euro Area
Public debts in the euro area have increased sharply due to the economic crisis, and remain at historically high levels in several countries. In a monetary union, high-debt members represent a permanent threat to financial stability, as they are subject – even if fundamentally solvent – to significant rollover risk. Given the tight financial and economic links between member states, a liquidity crisis in one of them would trigger area-wide turmoil. While prudent fiscal policies are essential to address the legacy debt problem, it takes time for them to bring the debt back to (at least) pre-crisis levels. Against this background, the paper explores the feasibility and desirability of transferring a share of national public debts to a European Redemption Fund. In exchange, each country would transfer a yearly flow of resources to the Fund. We show that it is possible to design such a scheme so that it does not entail any ex-ante cross-country redistribution, while the euro area as a whole would benefit as the lowering of member states’ annual refinancing needs would improve financial stability. The fraction of mutualized debt would be fully redeemed over a reasonable number of years. The scheme would not jeopardize national commitment to debt reduction; if anything, market discipline would become more effective at the margin.
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