重大不良事件对生产力的影响

A. Dieppe, Sinem Kilic Celik, Cédric Okou
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引用次数: 12

摘要

自2000年以来,全球经济出现了三次重大放缓,最近一次也是最明显的一次是由COVID-19大流行引发的。与此同时,许多国家面临重大不利事件,包括自然灾害、战争和金融危机,所有这些都可能对生产力造成长期损害。战争对生产力造成特别严重的破坏,而金融危机也会造成巨大损失,尤其是伴随着债务的迅速积累。自然灾害,特别是气候灾害发生的频率越高,意味着它们对生产力的总体影响越大,因为自然灾害发生的频率越高,自2000年以来发生的频率也增加了一倍。全球不利事件可以通过扰乱劳动力、收紧信贷、破坏价值链和减少创新,对生产率产生持续的巨大负面影响。应对不利冲击负面影响的政策包括:宽松的财政政策,如对韧性基础设施的重建支出;透明的治理;有效利用救济资金;以及有利于增长的结构性改革。适当的金融、建设、环保等方面的政策法规有助于减少不利冲击的发生频率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity
Since 2000, there have been three major global slowdowns, with the latest and most pronounced episode triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, many countries have faced major adverse events including natural disasters, wars, and financial crises, all of which can lead to long-lasting harm to productivity. Wars inflict particularly severe damage to productivity, while financial crises also lead to substantial losses, especially accompanied by a rapid build-up of debt. The greater frequency of natural disasters, especially climate disasters, means that they have the largest aggregate impact on productivity, as natural disasters have occurred most often and their frequency has doubled since 2000. Global adverse events can have large sustained negative effects on productivity through dislocating labor, tightening of credit, disrupting value chains, and decreasing innovation. Policies to counter the negative consequences of adverse shocks include accommodative fiscal policies, such as reconstruction spending on resilient infrastructure; transparent governance; efficient use of relief funds; as well as growth-friendly structural reforms. Appropriate policies and regulations concerning finance, construction, and environmental protection can help reduce the frequency of adverse shocks.
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