家庭生物能源使用关联问题分析的通用模型

U. Djanibekov, R. Finger, D. Guta, V. Gaur, A. Mirzabaev
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引用次数: 6

摘要

生物能源是发展中国家的主要能源。然而,对农产品需求的增加可能导致与生物能源生产对自然资源的更激烈竞争。能源、粮食生产和自然资源使用之间的联系可能导致权衡和协同作用。因此,重要的是要考虑生物能源的多维方面,评估生物能源选择的潜力,以满足农村家庭对能源的需求,同时增加他们的收入,加强粮食安全和减少潜在的负面影响。为了在单一框架内解决这些相互关联的问题,我们开发了一个通用的家庭模型,可以分析生物能源使用对发展中国家农村家庭的事前潜在影响。该模型依赖于动态规划方法,能够评估生物能源对家庭生计、环境和自然资源利用的长期影响。该模型明确考虑了家庭各成员(包括男子、妇女和儿童)之间的决策。我们还追踪了政策和技术变革对不同社会经济类别家庭的直接和溢出影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Generic Model for Analyzing Nexus Issues of Households’ Bioenergy Use
Bioenergy is a major source of energy in developing countries. However, increasing demand for agricultural commodities can lead to a stronger competition for natural resources with the bioenergy production. The nexus among energy, food production and natural resource use may result in trade-offs and synergies. Accordingly, it is important to consider multidimensional aspects of bioenergy, assess the potential for bioenergy options for meeting rural households’ demand for energy, while increasing their incomes, enhancing food security and reducing potential negative effects. For addressing these interrelated issues within a single framework, we develop a generic household model that allows analyzing the ex-ante potential impacts of bioenergy use on rural households in developing countries. The model relies on dynamic programming approach and is able to evaluate the impacts of bioenergy on livelihoods of households, on environment, and on natural resource use over time. The model explicitly considers decision making among various members of household, including men, women and children. We also trace direct and spillover impacts of policy and technological changes among different socio-economic categories of households.
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