Demographic Potential of Sverdlovsk According to the Censuses of 1939 and 1959: Results and Trends of Population Development in the Post-War Period

The article provides an assessment of the demographic potential of the population of Sverdlovsk and its development trends based on a comparative analysis of indicators of the size and sex-age structure of the population in 1939 and 1959. The sources for studying the demographic potential were the results of the population censuses of 1939 and 1959 in Sverdlovsk, as well as a database created on the basis of the 1959 census questionnaires preserved in the archive. The statistical analysis revealed the contradictory development of the demographic potential of Sverdlovsk in the post-war period. The contradictions arose from the different vectors of the basic demographic processes — natural and migration growth. Human potential of Sverdlovsk in the post-war period, as well as in the 1920s-1930s, mainly depended on the migration influx of the population aged 20–40, which made it possible to maintain the age structure at the stage of maturity and temporarily postponed the problems associated with ageing population.