欧洲绿色协议:俄罗斯的风险与机遇

O. Karpovich, A. Vilchinskii
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019年12月,欧盟提出了一项雄心勃勃的计划,名为“绿色协议”,旨在应对气候变化。在2020年批准的欧盟2021-2027年预算中,约25%的支出用于气候项目。该项目的法律框架于2021年夏季建立。其因素可能严重影响欧盟与包括俄罗斯联邦在内的主要贸易伙伴关系的结构和动态。文章分析了欧洲绿色议程对俄罗斯的影响,俄罗斯有自己的应对气候变化的方法。它们是国家发展优先次序系统的一个组成部分。在分析相关战略文件的基础上,对俄罗斯联邦和欧盟的环境政策方向进行了比较。注意的是各项目标和目的,以及减少和吸收排放到大气中的二氧化碳的拟议工具。本文还详细介绍了“适合55”一揽子措施,并确定了其对俄罗斯的意义。该研究调查了俄罗斯中长期面临的广泛的经济和政治风险。此外,还强调了对俄罗斯联邦燃料和能源联合体实行碳边界调整机制的后果。此外,本文还介绍了在实施“绿色协议”和向低碳经济转型的过程中,国际能源市场竞争的可能动态。根据研究结果,提出了旨在减轻风险的内部和外部维度的可能的经济和政治措施。此外,还提出了提高应对气候变化和减少有害气体排放的有效性的可能途径。此外,该研究还确定了俄罗斯与欧盟在生态领域合作的前景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The European green deal: risks and opportunities for Russia
In December 2019 the European Union presented an ambitious plan called the Green Deal which is aimed at combating climate change. In the EU 2021–2027 budget approved in 2020 about 25 % of the expenditures are allocated for climate projects. Legal framework of the project was established in summer 2021. Its elements can impact seriously the structure and dynamics of the EU's relations with its leading trading partners, including the Russian Federation. The article analyzes the impact the European Green Agenda has on Russia, which has its own approaches to combating climate change. They form an integral part of national development priorities system. Having analyzed the relevant strategic documents, the authors compare the directions of environmental policies of the Russian Federation and the EU. Attention is paid to the goals and objectives, as well as to the proposed tools for reducing and absorbing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The paper also provides a detailed description of the "Fit for 55" package of measures and determines its significance for Russia. The study examines a wide range of economic and political risks for Russia in the mid and long terms. In addition, the consequences of the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation are highlighted. Furthermore, the article presents possible dynamics of a competition in the international energy market amid the implementation of the "Green Deal" and the transition to a low-carbon economy. As a result of the research, possible economic and political measures in internal and external dimensions aimed at mitigating risks are suggested. Moreover, possible ways to improve the effectiveness of combating climate change and the reduction of harmful emissions are put forward. In addition, the research identifies prospects for cooperation in ecology between Russia and the EU.
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