股票供求对股票综合指数的影响研究

Hong-quan Kang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文以股票供求因素为基础,以上海a股为例,运用VAR模型分析了影响上证综合指数的供需因素。研究结果表明,货币供应量变化对上证a股综合指数具有长期的正向影响,而总市值的扰动具有长期的负向影响。因此,维护股市稳定,一方面要严格IPO审核标准,避免盲目发行或扩大高市盈率、高市净率股票;另一方面,应提供适当的货币供给,促进流动性的增加,这为当前中国股票市场改革提供了政策方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Study on the impact of stock supply and demand on stock composite index
Based on the stock supply and demand factors, this paper takes the Shanghai a-share as an example, analyzing the supply and demand factors which affect the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange with VAR model. The results show that, there is a long-term positive effect of the money supply changes on the Shanghai a-share composite index, while the disturbance of the total market value has a long-term of negative effect. Therefore, to maintain stability in the stock market, on the one hand, the IPO audit standard should be strict, blind issued or expansion of high p/e ratio and high city net rate stocks should be avoided; On the other hand, appropriate monetary supply should be provided to promote increasing of mobility, and it provides a policy direction to the reform of stock market for China in current.
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