A methodology to assess the impact of 2030 EU climate and energy targets on the national power systems: The Italian case

On October 23rd, 2014 the European Council confirmed the targets for the new 2030 climate and energy policy. In this paper we present a methodology to assess the impact of the achievement of such targets on the development and on the operation of the power system, to determine the necessary investments on infrastructures by means of a cost-benefit analysis based on simulations and to estimate the effects on the electricity cost. The methodology has been applied to the Italian case by RSE, starting from a scenario, developed by ENEA, where the Italian energy system in 2030 achieves a 36% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to 2005 levels, in line with the EU targets. Using s-MTSIM, a simulation model of the Italian power system developed by RSE, the main criticalities (congestion, overgeneration, energy not supplied, etc.) have been identified and quantified. Then, the measures to upgrade the transmission and distribution networks and to increase the flexibility of the generation set, needed to mitigate the impact of such critical issues, have been valued on the basis of a cost/benefit analysis. Finally, the amount of the investments needed and the impact on electricity cost for end users have been estimated.