新冠肺炎疫情下供应链稳定性和可靠性形成的vuca-world决定因素

I. Lutsenko
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文考察了不确定性作为vuca世界中供应链存在的一个组成部分,描述了影响供应链的不确定性。对于有效的管理来说,重要的是要区分不确定性的类型:无知、不确定性和风险,并考虑它们的本质和表现特征。在大流行病挑战的情况下,威胁和风险的程度变得更加复杂和增加,这使得作出适当管理决策的过程变得困难,可能导致供应链运作的负面后果。分析了在保证供应链的生存能力和效率时需要不断考虑的不确定性因素。此外,能够显著影响系统“故障”数量的因素——不可抗力、自然灾害、政治、金融危机、恐怖主义、海盗、各种突发事件。建立了管理决策的有效性,以增加供应链的稳定性将取决于活动,以尽量减少主观性和客观性的不确定性的内部和外部环境,不确定性的类型和系统要素的影响,将塑造供应链的可靠性和稳定性。在这种情况下,管理人员将能够作出决定,保持系统所需的灵活性和适应性水平。为了找到在困难的流行病条件下提高供应链可靠性和稳定性水平的方法,建立了稳定性要素,建议通过系统在供应链基础设施和流动过程的不同组成部分中的“故障”概率来考虑供应链的可靠性。为了满足VUCA-world供应链的要求,需要使用创新的方法,多样性,通过信任在整个供应链中建立透明的信息流,建立有效的企业文化,包括应对不断挑战的情感弹性,社会责任,持续培训和再培训,勇于做出非标准决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
DETERMINANTS OF VUCA-WORLD IN THE FORMATION OF STABILITY AND RELIABILITY OF SUPPLY CHAINS UNDER COVID-19
The article examines uncertainty as an integral part of the existence of supply chain in the VUCA-world, describes the uncertainties that affect supply chain. It is determined that for effective management it is important to distinguish between types of uncertainty: ignorance, uncertainty and risk, their essence and features of manifestation are considered. In the case of pandemic challenges, the levels of threats and risks become more complicated and increase, which makes the process of making adequate management decisions difficult, can lead to negative consequences of the functioning of supply chain. Uncertainty factors that need to be constantly taken into account in ensuring the viability and efficiency of supply chain are analyzed. In addition, the factors that can significantly affect the number of "failures" in the system - force majeure, natural disasters, political, financial crises, terrorism, piracy, various emergencies. It is established that the effectiveness of management decisions to increase the stability of supply chain will depend on activities to minimize the impact of subjectivity and objectivity of uncertainty of both internal and external environment, types of uncertainty and system elements that will shape the reliability and stability of supply chains. Under such conditions, managers will be able to make decisions that will maintain the required level of flexibility and adaptability of the system. In order to find ways to increase the level of reliability and stability of supply chains in difficult pandemic conditions, elements of stability are established, it is proposed to consider the reliability of supply chain through the probability of "failure" of the system within different components of supply chain infrastructure and flow processes. To meet the requirements of VUCA-world supply chain needs to use innovative approaches, diversity, build transparent information flows through trust throughout the supply chain, build an effective corporate culture that will include emotional resilience to constant challenges, social responsibility, continuous training and retraining, courage in making non-standard decisions.
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