Probabilistic Technique to Estimate Duration of Rig-Less Gravel Pack Completion for a Better Planning

The operator has been utilizing a hydraulic workover unit to perform gravel pack completion in its offshore fields since 2019. Managing all fleets in the company's premises to meet the annual company's objective is quite complex and involves many stakeholders. Time and cost estimation for each campaign can be critical factors to predict and to arrange the work loads of each fleets. Taking immediate data from previous wells can create another issue since the types of job are different one to another. Hence, it is required to generate a probabilistic technique to estimate the duration which represents the workloads per campaign as much as possible. This paper discusses development of a probabilistic method to predict the time and cost of the rig-less gravel pack completion. Post data and facts are enhanced through statistical iteration to create a tool for estimating the duration. After all, the model has been beneficial to be used in the following projects of the rig-less gravel pack.