非居民持有尼日利亚国内债务:内部驱动还是外部驱动?

A. Hosny
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引用次数: 1

摘要

外国持有的尼日利亚国内债务工具一直在增加。使用2007年m1 -2019年m1的数据,我们表明,平均而言,在外国投资组合投资者在尼日利亚的决策中,全球因素(全球利率、油价)似乎比国内因素(国库券利率和国内风险)更重要。具体而言,我们表明,从长远来看,外国参与与油价和本币工具的收益率呈正相关,但与汇率贬值压力负相关。从短期来看,油价、资金的机会成本和对尼日利亚特有风险的看法也发挥了作用。这些结果突出了这种流动的短期波动性,并呼吁进行一揽子政策改革,以吸引长期直接投资。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria: Internal or External Driven?
Foreign holdings of domestic debt instruments in Nigeria have been increasing. Using data over 2007M1-2019M1, we show that, on average, global factors (global interest rates, oil prices) seem to carry more weight than domestic factors (treasury bills rate and domestic risk) in foreign portfolio invetsors’ decisions in Nigeria. Specifically, we show that foreign participation is, in the long run, positively correlated with oil prices and profitable rates of return on local-currency instruments, but negatively correlated with exchange rate depreciation pressures. In the short run, oil prices, opportunity cost of funds and perception of Nigeria-specific risks also play a role. These results highlight the volatile short-term nature of such flows and call for a package of policy reforms to attract longer term direct investments.
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