全球武器贸易和石油依赖

V. Bove, C. Deiana, R. Nisticò
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引用次数: 46

摘要

我们研究石油依赖如何影响国与国之间的武器贸易。我们认为,依赖石油的经济体有动机将武器转移到石油丰富的国家,以减少其不稳定的风险,从而减少石油工业中断的机会。我们采用武器贸易的重力模型,并估计当地和全球石油依赖的影响。出现了两个关键结果。首先,向某一国家转让武器的数量受其对石油供应的依赖程度的影响。其次,即使没有直接的双边石油换武器交易,全球对石油的依赖也会促使武器出口到石油丰富的国家。我们的研究结果一致表明,武器贸易是确保和维持获得石油的有效外交政策工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence
We investigate how oil dependence affects the trade of weapons between countries. We argue that oil-dependent economies have incentives to transfer arms to oil-rich countries to reduce their risk of instability and, as a result, the chances of disruption in the oil industry. We employ gravity models of the arms trade and estimate the effect of both a local as well as a global oil dependence. Two key results emerge. First, the volume of arms transfers to a specific country is affected by the degree of dependence on its supply of oil. Second, global oil dependence motivates arms export to oil-rich countries even in absence of a direct bilateral oil-for-weapons exchange. Our results point consistently toward the conclusion that the arms trade is an effective foreign policy tool to securing and maintaining access to oil.
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