The risk of asymmetric information on the liquidity of agricultural commodities futures contracts

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of the risk of informational asymmetry on the liquidity of agricultural commodity futures contracts traded on B3. To this end, we examine intraday negotiations of the commodities Live Cattle, Arabica Coffee, Corn, and Soybeans from December 1, 2018 to November 30, 2019. We carry out the analysis using a panel regression model. We use spread as a proxy for liquidity, VPIN as a proxy for the probability of informational asymmetry and, as control variables, the number of trades, volume traded, and volatility. Our results show that the regressors explain 43.08% of the spread variation. In addition, there is a positive relationship between the risk of trading with informational asymmetry and market liquidity, in contrast with the extant results in the literature.