The probabilistic approach to solve analytical problems in a life cycle of complex systems for developing and transportation hydrocarbon deposits of Arctic regions

The original methodological approach is proposed to solve analytical problems in a life cycle of complex systems operation for developing and transportation hydrocarbon deposits of Arctic regions. On the base of the proposed probabilistic modelling of processes the following analytical problems may be solved: (1) for ecologically safe sea investigation, extraction and transportation of various kinds of mineral resources in extreme natural-climatic conditions; (2) for complex safety of developing and transportation hydrocarbon deposits on a continental shelf, including monitoring and forecasting of extreme situations of natural and technogenic character; (3) for prevention and liquidation variants of emergency floods of oil, first of all in ice conditions, including creation of technologies for detection of oil under ice; (4) for development of technologies complex hydrometeorological and ecological monitoring of the dangerous natural phenomena in Arctic regions; (5) for development of technologies of remote sounding of the Earth, including ecological monitoring, an estimation of resources and forecasting of a condition of an environment of the Arctic, and also the automated systems of gathering and information processing in remote areas of Arctic regions. Some effects are demonstrated by examples.