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引用次数: 1
摘要
总统选举的财政模型(Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections)在预测奥巴马总统2012年的连任失败后进行了修改，自1916年以来，除了三次之外，其他所有的样本预测都是正确的。今年，该机构预测现任民主党将以48.2%的两党选票落败。
Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election
The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama’s reelection in 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent Democrats losing with 48.2% of the two-party vote.
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