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Apartheid 种族隔离制度
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-08-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3914266
Art Carden, C. Lingle
{"title":"Apartheid","authors":"Art Carden, C. Lingle","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3914266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3914266","url":null,"abstract":"Apartheid was an array of racist laws governing South Africa from the election of the National Party in 1948 until the election of Nelson Mandela in 1994. Apartheid's codified racism required discrimination, violated the rights of individuals as individuals, and shackled the South African economy for the transitory benefit of special interests. Apartheid combined mercantilism, colonialism, nationalism, and socialism with racism to produce a constellation of oppressive institutions that cost the country dearly in blood and treasure by limiting its potential to develop internally and eventually leading to its isolation from international markets","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127081457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crises, Catharses, and Boiling Frogs: Path Dependence in Collective Action 危机、宣泄和沸腾的青蛙:集体行动中的路径依赖
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906282
Sofía Correa, G. Nandong, Mehdi Shadmehr
{"title":"Crises, Catharses, and Boiling Frogs: Path Dependence in Collective Action","authors":"Sofía Correa, G. Nandong, Mehdi Shadmehr","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3906282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906282","url":null,"abstract":"We show a strong form of path-dependence in collective action. For a given distribution of anti-regime grievances and sentiments in the society, the size of the protest is larger when this distribution of grievances is the result of a sudden large change rather than a series of smaller unexpected changes. Society as a whole behaves like the legendary boiling frog, even though each individual does not. Large grievance shocks (crises) coordinate behavior far more effectively into revolts than a sequence of small shocks that generate the same final distribution of grievances. Our analysis applies advances in incomplete information coordination games (Morris and Yildiz 2019), deviating from the literature by relying only on the notion of rationalizability (as opposed to Nash equilibrium) and assuming heavy-tailed distributions of grievance shocks. We explore the unexpected link between this theory and Davies's (1962) classic J-curve theory of revolution.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122342686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Common Good and Voter Polarization 共同利益与选民两极分化
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3868589
J. Matsusaka, Chad Kendall
{"title":"The Common Good and Voter Polarization","authors":"J. Matsusaka, Chad Kendall","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3868589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3868589","url":null,"abstract":"Do voters see democracy entirely as a game of self-interest in which one person’s gain is another’s loss, or do they also view it as a search for the common good, as some democracy theorists have long conjectured? Existing empirical research that assumes entirely private interests cannot answer this question, by design. We develop an empirical model in which voters derive utility from both common-good and private considerations, and show formally how to disentangle the two preference components. We estimate the model on California ballot propositions from 1986 to 2020, and find that 46 to 87 percent of voters place significant weight on the common-good aspects of proposals. Common-good concerns mitigate the effects of voter polarization, which we find substantially increased over out study period - particularly in the last six years.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115903653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Voting for Compromises: Alternative Voting Methods in Polarized Societies 为妥协而投票:两极分化社会中的另类投票方式
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3915687
Carlos Alós-Ferrer, J. Buckenmaier
{"title":"Voting for Compromises: Alternative Voting Methods in Polarized Societies","authors":"Carlos Alós-Ferrer, J. Buckenmaier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3915687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3915687","url":null,"abstract":"Democratic societies have been increasingly confronted with extreme, knife-edge election outcomes that affect everybody’s lives and contribute to social instability. Even if political compromises based on social conventions as equity or economic arguments as efficiency are available, polarized societies might fail to select them. We demonstrate that part of the problem might be purely technical and, hence, potentially solvable. We study different voting methods in three experiments (total N = 5, 820), including small, medium-sized, and large electorates, and find that currently-used methods (Plurality Voting and Rank-Order systems) can lead voters to overwhelmingly support egoistic options. In contrast, alternative, more nuanced methods (Approval Voting and Borda Count) reduce the support for egoistic options and favor equity and efficiency, avoiding extreme outcomes. Those methods differ in whether they favor equity or efficiency when the latter benefits a majority. Our evidence suggests that targeted changes in the electoral system could favor socially-desirable compromises and increase social stability.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131397737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Influência de Messias? Relação Intramunicipal entre Preferências Políticas e Mortes em uma Pandemia (Messias’ Influence? Intra-Municipal Relationship between Political Preferences and Deaths in a Pandemic) 弥赛亚的影响?政治偏好与大流行中的死亡之间的市政内关系(弥赛亚的影响?政治偏好与大流行中的死亡之间的市内关系)
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3849383
G. Figueira, Luca Moreno-Louzada
{"title":"Influência de Messias? Relação Intramunicipal entre Preferências Políticas e Mortes em uma Pandemia (Messias’ Influence? Intra-Municipal Relationship between Political Preferences and Deaths in a Pandemic)","authors":"G. Figueira, Luca Moreno-Louzada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3849383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3849383","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Previous studies have shown that the percentage of votes for Jair Messias Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential elections, at the municipal and state levels, is related to the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of the number of deaths. We find the same effects at the intra- -municipal level in the city of São Paulo. Using geolocation, we associate voting data with number of deaths for the 96 districts in the city. We analyze excess mortality to mitigate underreporting issues and to account for exogenous determinants of mortality, as well as control for age structure and several indicators of socioeconomic vulnerability. The results are significant and indicate the existence of a relationship between votes for Bolsonaro and deaths during the pandemic — between one and five additional deaths per 100k people for each percentage point of votes. Several robustness checks support our findings.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132872505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Mixed Member Proportional with Faithful Accounting 混合成员比例与忠实会计
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3804724
E. Stensholt
{"title":"Mixed Member Proportional with Faithful Accounting","authors":"E. Stensholt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3804724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3804724","url":null,"abstract":"With present (2021) tally rules, the number of seats in the Bundestag is highly volatile. In 2017 it got 709 seats, 111 of them extra-ordinary. The rules may double the influence of a voter who splits the ballot, contrary to a goal of equal influence; increased assembly size is a concomitant. The paper explains when and how this happens.<br><br>A ballot’s combination of Erststimme and Zweitstimme is information now ignored; the tally is as if they were collected in separate ballot boxes. Faithful accounting requires this information, but there is strong reason to expect it will reduce the 2017 assembly size to the ordinary 598 seats stated in the Federal Elections Act. Tallying 2017 votes with the present rules, but with CDU&amp;CSU as a recognized coalition, reduces the size by 41 seats.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130086486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Election Forecasting in the Caribbean: Reflections from Jamaica 2015-2020 加勒比地区的选举预测:2015-2020年牙买加的反思
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3776949
Christopher A. D. Charles
{"title":"Election Forecasting in the Caribbean: Reflections from Jamaica 2015-2020","authors":"Christopher A. D. Charles","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3776949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3776949","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses election forecasting in the Caribbean through the reflective lens of model-based election forecasting in Jamaica between 2015 and 2020 to chart the progress made and to increase public understanding of the issues. Poll-based election forecasting is the dominant modality throughout the Caribbean. Since the death of Carl Stone in Jamaica, polls have been sometimes inaccurate because of methodological limitations. The major parties sometimes do not trust local pollsters. The thriving election forecasting business in the region provided the opportunity to employ other Caribbean pollsters. Model based election forecasting was introduced in Jamaica to complement poll-based forecasting. The model- based election forecasts in 2016 were inaccurate because the JLP tax plan was underestimated. The models used to accurately forecast the 2020 General Election shows that the state of the economy, the state of security, and what the party leaders are like (what they do) are very important to voters. There are historical, political, economic and social similarities between the Caribbean and Latin America so panel data on the macro-economy, homicide and leadership can also be used to forecast elections in these regions despite some major differences.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133958194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Dynamic Voting 动态投票
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3630064
Shuhei Kitamura, T. Matsubayashi
{"title":"Dynamic Voting","authors":"Shuhei Kitamura, T. Matsubayashi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3630064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3630064","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the dynamic nature of voting in modern elections with wide voting windows. Our stylized two-period model predicts that, if voters are not myopic, turnout in the current period tends to increase as the costs in the other period increase. The model also produces a surprising prediction that overall turnout can increase even when the costs increase. We test these predictions using novel data from Japan's General Election in 2017 with a weather disruption caused by a powerful typhoon. Our analyses show that the tremendous costs on Election Day shifted the timing of voting and did not decrease overall turnout in 2017, as compared to 2014. Our model and findings build a new benchmark to understand how voters decide their timing of voting. This study also has implications for the unprecedented popularity of early voting in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114768275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elections, Political Connections and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Local Assemblies 选举、政治关系和现金持有:来自地方议会的证据
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2021-01-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3765924
David Adeabah, Charles Andoh, S. Asongu, I. Akomea-Frimpong
{"title":"Elections, Political Connections and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Local Assemblies","authors":"David Adeabah, Charles Andoh, S. Asongu, I. Akomea-Frimpong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3765924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3765924","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the relationship between elections, political connections, and cash holdings in Ghanaian local assemblies. Using a panel dataset of 179local assemblies over a period 2012 to 2017, a panel regression and the generalized method of moments estimation techniques was employed for the analysis. We find that local assemblies hold less cash during election years, which suggests that election may be one of the potential factors to mitigate agency conflict in weak governance environment. Further, we demonstrate that local assemblies that have political connections hold less cash; however, political uncertainty makes these entities conducive to agency problems than their non-connected peers because they hold more cash. Additional analysis indicates that one year prior to elections, managerial conservatism kicks-in and leads managers to hold more cash in local assemblies that have political connections, which continues and becomes more pronounced in election years. Our results have implications for regulations on the cash management practices of local assemblies.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125059382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electoral Response to the Decline of Coal Mining in the United States 选举对美国煤炭开采衰退的反应
ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710589
F. Egli, N. Schmid, T. Schmidt
{"title":"Electoral Response to the Decline of Coal Mining in the United States","authors":"F. Egli, N. Schmid, T. Schmidt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3710589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3710589","url":null,"abstract":"Replacing coal with cleaner energy carriers is a crucial lever to reach the Paris climate targets. However, as coal decline results in local job loss, political backlash might arise, jeopardizing the clean energy transition. Yet, we lack evidence on whether such backlash exists. Here, we analyze the electoral response to coal mining job losses in the United States presidential elections from 2000 to 2016 in a panel regression and a matched difference-in-difference setting. Our results suggest an electoral response in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections specific to the loss of coal mining jobs. We estimate an increased Republican vote share of 1.2 pp in 2012 and 1.5 pp in 2016 for each 100 coal mining jobs lost. The estimated electoral response is thus almost five times as large as the numbers of jobs lost. We observe this response only in places with large job losses, where these jobs account for a large share of locally available jobs and where income levels are low. Existing relative party strengths, however, do not influence the results. Moreover, we find a spillover effect of 2.2 pp in 2016 into counties within 50 km of those affected by coal decline. We discuss the implications of these findings for coal phase-outs worldwide.","PeriodicalId":117783,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129838979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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