金砖国家和七国集团国家交通运输技术跨越式发展的影响

Joao Paulo Nascimento Silva, Cledison Carlos de Oliveira, Gabriel Pedrosa, André Grutzmann
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摘要

本文旨在分析交通运输市场中颠覆性创新的技术、经济和环境影响。本文收集了世界银行和13个公开来源的数据,对七国集团和金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯联邦、印度、中国和南非)经济体、企业和社会的潜在颠覆性交通创新成果进行了探索性、描述性和应用性调查。研究结果表明,电动汽车(EV)、自动驾驶汽车(AVs)和电动垂直起降(eVTOLs)的技术跨越具有积极意义,例如能源消耗的增加、基础设施的改善、温室气体排放的减少、经济的增长,以及新的颠覆性技术改善甚至彻底改变交通生态系统的机会。这项研究有明显的局限性,因为它比较了七国集团和金砖国家的假设情景,内燃机汽车被新技术取代,其他条件相同。即便如此,作为理论意义,该研究提出了电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车和电动交通工具技术的市场情景,通过扩大对该主题的理解,为颠覆性创新理论带来了好处,并通过探索新的技术、经济和环境可能性开辟了研究途径。本研究强调潜在的颠覆性技术通过技术跨越给各国带来的技术、经济和可持续利益。组织可以深入研究结果,以调查即将到来的市场并寻求有利地位。跨越式发展带来的经济和社会收益可能会促使政府机构为专注于电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车和电动交通工具推广的研究提供资金。本文的独创性在于汇总了多个数据源,以比较G7和金砖国家交通运输的技术跨越式发展。不同的观点允许探索电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车和电动交通工具在发达国家和发展中国家的经济、可持续性和市场层面的潜在结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effects of technological leapfrogging in transportation technologies in BRICS and G7 countries
Purpose This paper aims to analyse the technological, economic and environmental impacts of disruptive innovations in the transportation mobility market. Design/methodology/approach The paper gathered data from World Bank and 13 open sources in an exploratory, descriptive and applied investigation on potentially disruptive transport innovations outcomes in G7 and BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) economies, businesses and societies. Findings The results suggest positive implications for technological leapfrogging of electric vehicles (EV), autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOLs), such as gains in energy consumption, infrastructure improvement, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, economic growth and the opportunity for new disruptive technologies to improve or even revolutionize the transportation ecosystem. Research limitations/implications This study has clear limitations as it compares G7 and BRICS hypothetical scenarios where internal combustion vehicles were replaced by new technologies, ceteris paribus. Even so, as theoretical implications, the study presents market scenarios for EVs, AVs and eVTOLs technologies, bringing benefits to the disruptive innovation theory by expanding the understanding of the subject and also opening avenues of investigation by exploring new technological, economic and environmental possibilities. Practical implications This study emphasises potentially disruptive technologies’ technological, economic and sustainable benefits to countries through technological leapfrogging. The organizations can delve into results to investigate forthcoming markets and seek advantageous positions. Economic and social gains from leapfrogging could motivate government bodies to finance research focusing on EVs, AVs and eVTOLs diffusion. Originality/value The paper’s originality resides in aggregating multiple data sources to compare technological leapfrogging in G7 and BRICS transportation. The different views allowed for exploring the potential outcomes of EVs, AVs and eVTOLs on economic, sustainability and market dimensions in developed and developing countries.
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