再工业化条件下美国制造业演化动力学的分区域不对称与中经济模型

V. Minat
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摘要

美国经济现代化的关键要素是制造业,这意味着国内工业生产的再工业化质的发展和数量的增长。利用进化-遗传、系统和地域的方法来研究美国工业作为一个开放的中观经济系统,使识别美国制造业时空发展的动态成为可能,其结果之一是分区域不对称。基于传统的经济、统计分析和条件映射方法,根据具有特色的“中心-边缘”原则,呈现出美国制造业空间发展不对称的整体“地理”图景。利用数学建模技术,可以确定所研究的行业在过去二十年中的进化发展阶段,定量和定性地反映了美国经济从去工业化到再工业化发展范式的初始阶段过渡的本质。研究结果充分证实了美国制造业随时间的不平衡发展与地缘经济空间异质性及其演化动态之间存在关系的假设。此外,在中间经济模型的基础上,实证结果表明,美国工业中间系统的再工业化发展方向初步形成。由此获得的经验证据表明,在现代资本主义世界先进经济体系中,在技术结构和世界经济结构客观变化的浪潮中,以NBIC趋同为基础的工业化4.0的稳步发展趋势已经形成。结论不仅是在世界经济去全球化的条件下需要依靠自己的资源的客观过程,而且是在新工业类型的竞争基础形成方面美国国家政策的变化过程。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Subregional Asymmetry and Mesoeconomic Modeling of the Evolutionary Dynamics of US Manufacturing Industries Under the Conditions of Reindustrialization
The key element in the modernization of the US economy, which implies re-industrial qualitative development and quantitative growth in industrial production within the country, is the manufacturing industry. The use of evolutionary-genetic, systemic and territorial approaches to the study of American industry as an open meso-level economic system made it possible to identify the dynamics of the US manufacturing industry spatio-temporal development, one of the results of which is subregional asymmetry. Based on traditional methods of economic and statistical analysis and conditional mapping, a holistic “ ‘geographical’ picture” of the asymmetry of the spatial development of the US manufacturing industry according to the characteristic “center-periphery” principle is presented. The use of mathematical modeling techniques made it possible to identify the stages of the studied industries evolutionary development over the past two decades, quantitatively and qualitatively reflecting the essence of the US economy transition from the deindustrial to the initial stage of the reindustrial development paradigm. The results of the study made it possible to fully confirm the hypothesis put forward about the existence of a relationship between the uneven development of US manufacturing industry over time and heterogeneity in the geo-economic space, on the one hand, and their evolutionary dynamics, on the other. In addition, on the basis of mesoeconomic modeling, empirical results were obtained indicating signs of the initial sustainable formation of the re-industrial direction of development of the US industrial mesosystem. Thus, empirical evidence has been obtained that in the advanced economic system of the modern capitalist world, on the wave of an objective change in technological and world economic structures, a steady trend towards Industrialization 4.0 based on NBIC convergence has formed. The conclusion is made not only about the objective process of the need to rely on one’s own resources in the conditions of the world economy deglobalization, but also about the change in the course of the United States national policy in terms of the formation of a competitive basis of the neo-industrial type.
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