Intrinsic and Momentum Components of World Population Growth: 1950-2020

This paper analyses population growth in the world, in its more developed, less developed and the least developed countries and in 201 countries and areas during the 70 years period between 1950-2020 based on the estimates prepared by the United Nations Population Division. The analysis decomposes population growth into intrinsic population growth or growth attributed to fertility and mortality and momentum growth or growth due to population momentum which attributed to changes in the age composition of the population as they effect the birth rate and the death rate. The paper reveals that there has been a shift in the main drivers of population growth from fertility and mortality to population age composition through its effect on the birth rate and the death rate. Given the increasing dominance of population momentum in deciding population growth, the paper calls for explicit provision of addressing population momentum in the population policy in the quest for population stabilisation.