同理心法在企业投资风险分析与评估中的应用

N. Amelina, O. Levishchenko, O. Taranukha
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在全球金融不稳定的背景下,社会心理因素在投资决策中的作用越来越大,需要从投资者、国家、行业和企业的角度重新思考投资风险管理的意义,更新现有的风险评估方法。因此,风险评估往往需要根据唯一性、差异性等原则进行准备和实施。每个风险都需要识别在其他类型的风险中没有发现的许多来源。这就是为什么本文的目的是发展和完善需要进一步细化的投资风险分析和评估方法。在对现代投资活动经济实践中使用的现有风险评估和分析方法进行系统化和比较表征的基础上,提出通过引入移情方法来改进风险分析和评估工具,这种方法不仅可以使用经济标准,而且可以将投资者的主观和客观认知评估相结合。本文建议将“风险感知”视为两个独立的组成部分:风险感知和风险机会感知,考虑到影响感知的条件,即在某一时期或某一投资阶段,无论风险概况如何,其中一种投资风险将降低或提高。对风险机会的感知对投资是积极的,尽管同时它对发展中的企业也有其负面影响。只有在企业具有吸引投资的具体建议和前景的阶段确定了风险概况后,才能确定对这方面的影响。构成风险“概况”的所有因素已经在风险评估方法中被考虑过多次,并辅以新的组成部分,如风险的“容忍度”和“感知”,这些因素以前没有应用于投资风险。因此,建议的共情风险评估和分析方法可以考虑到感知、容忍度和风险吸引力的影响,这将最终产生一个清晰而合乎逻辑的风险概况,并能够找出这些因素中哪一个对投资决策有最大的间接影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
EMPATHY METHOD IN ANALYSING AND ASSESSING OF ENTERPRISE INVESTMENT RISKS
In the context of global financial instability, the role of socio-psychological factors in investment decision-making has increased and there is a need to reconsider the meaning of investment risk management and updating existing risk assessment methods from the perspective of both investor, state, industry and enterprises. Thus, risk assessment often needs to be prepared and conducted according to the principle of uniqueness, distinction, etc. Each risk requires the identification of a number of sources not found in the other types of risks. That is why the purpose of the article is to develop and improve methods of the analysis and the assessment of investment risks requiring the further refinement. On the basis of systematization and the comparative characterization of existing methods of risk assessment and analysis used in the modern economic practice of investment activities, it is proposed to improve the tools for risk analysis and assessment by including the empathy method, which allows using not only the economic criteria, but also a combination of subjective and objective cognitive assessments of an investor. The article suggests to consider «risk perception» as two separate components: risk perception and risk opportunity perception taken into account the conditions affecting the perception that one of the investment risks will be lower or higher in a certain period of time or at a certain stage of investment, regardless of the risk profile. The perception of a risk opportunity is positive for investing, although at the same time it has its own negative consequences for a developing enterprise. The impact on this can only be identified once the risk profile has been determined at the stage when the enterprise has specific proposals and prospects for attracting investment. The totality of factors making up the risk «profile» has already been considered many times in risk assessment methodologies, and is supplemented by new components such as «tolerance» and «perception» of risk, which were not previously applied in relation to investment risk. Consequently, the suggested empathy method for risk assessment and analysis allows to take into account the influence of perceptions, tolerance and risk attractiveness, which will ultimately generate a clear and logical risk profile and enables to find out which of these factors have the greatest and the indirect influence on the decision to invest.
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