基于混合BP神经网络的电力市场运行效率评价——基于中国市场监管机构的视角

Jun Dong, Yao Liu, Zhenjie Chen, Yaoyu Zhang, Yuzheng Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国电力市场化改革推动了电力市场的市场化进程,但在这一过程中,仍存在一些扰乱市场秩序的行为。为了评价电力市场的运行效率,需要对电力市场的运行进行评价,而监管机构是电力市场运行效率的重要组成部分,因此从监管机构的角度构建电力市场运行效率的评价指标和方法是非常必要的。本文构建了一个基于混合BP神经网络的电力市场运行效率评价体系。在方法的构建中,考虑到被评价事物的不确定性和模糊性,选择合适的评价方法是非常必要的。在此基础上,本文构建了基于SCP模型的电力市场运行效率评价指标体系,构建了基于模糊德尔菲、模糊层次分析法和神经网络的评价方法。最后,本文选取某地区的实际数据进行实例验证,并进行敏感性分析,对影响市场运行效率的关键因素进行分析,得出本文的结论。本文希望研究成果能够应用于监管机构的决策,使电力市场高效运行。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Power Market Operation Efficiency Evaluation Based on a Hybrid BP Neural Network: A perspective from Market Regulator in China
The electricity market reform in China promotes the marketization process of the electricity market, but in this process, there are still some behaviors that disturb the market order. The operation of electricity market needs to be evaluated in order to evaluate its operation efficiency, and the regulatory agency is an important part of it, so it is very necessary to construct the evaluation index and method of the operation efficiency of electricity market from the perspective of the regulatory agency. This paper constructed an evaluation system of power market operation efficiency based on hybrid BP neural network. In the construction of methods, appropriate evaluation methods become very necessary when considering the uncertainty and ambiguity of the assessed things. Based on the above analysis, this paper constructed an evaluation index system of power market operation efficiency based on SCP model, and constructed evaluation methods based on fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and neural network. Finally, this paper selects the actual data of a certain region for example verification, and conducts sensitivity analysis to analyze the factors that have a key impact on the efficiency of market operation, and draws the conclusion of this paper. This paper hopes that the research results can be applied to the decision-making of regulators in order to make the electricity market run efficiently.
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