对美国蔬菜种植者理性预期的考察

E. Beach, J. Fernandez-Cornejo, N. Uri
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用1990年佛罗里达州、密歇根州和得克萨斯州蔬菜个体种植者的预期价格和实际价格调查数据来检验理性预期假设。个体种植者数据的使用克服了许多聚集、风险溢价和模型规范问题,这些问题限制了以前在农业中对这一假设的检验。总体而言,蔬菜种植者的价格预期与研究的大多数蔬菜/州组合的理性预期假设不一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Examination of the Rational Expectations of Vegetable Growers in the United States
ABSTRACT Survey data on expected and actual prices received by individual vegetable growers in Florida, Michigan, and Texas in 1990 are used to test the rational expectations hypothesis. The use of individual grower data overcomes many of the aggregation, risk premia and model specification issues that have limited previous tests of this hypothesis in agriculture. Overall, price expectations of vegetable growers are found to be inconsistent with the rational expectations hypothesis for the majority of vegetable/state combinations studied.
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