基于模糊规则库的需求分析预测增强

Agus Pratondo
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引用次数: 8

摘要

需求数据可以不时地看作一个数字序列。如果时间片段是恒定的,则该序列可能是一个模式,可以对其进行分析,以便进行下一个需求预测。对于时间片为常数的需求序列,可以应用公式预测下一个需求值。有很多方法可以预测下一个需求。所有公式都将需求事实作为一个纯数列来计算下一个需求。下一个需求值是利用数学方程,从最简单的方法到最复杂的方法,从解析过程中得到的。事实上,需求受到环境因素的影响,如社会政治交流、灾害、模式等。需求预测必须考虑环境因素进行重新评估。环境因子通常具有不确定值,采用模糊值比较好。因此,利用模糊规则库进行需求预测是提高需求预测能力的最好方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fuzzy Rule Base for Analytical Demand Forecasting Enhancement
Demand data can be viewed as a number series from time to time. The series may be a pattern that can be analized for the next demand prediction if the slice of time is constant. The demand series which the time slice is constant can forecast the next demand valued by aplying a formula. There are many methods to forecast the next demand. All formulas calculate the next demand by using the fact of demand as a pure number series. The next demand value is derived from analitical process using mathematics equation, from the simplest way to the complex one. In fact, the demand is influenced by environtment factor, for example social and politics exchange, disaster, and mode. The demand forecasting must be reevaluated by considering the environtment factors. The environtment factor usually has uncertainty value which is good using fuzzy value. That is why the best way to enhance the demand forecasting is calculation using fuzzy rule base.
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